Which assumptions of payment experts came to reality
As the year draws to a close, analysts and payment industry players traditionally discuss the future and share their predictions about how the payment industry will evolve. Often, these forecasts are based on real data, but sometimes they stem from speculation and optimistic assumptions. We became curious to analyze which of the main payment predictions discussed in 2024 came true and which remained just potential possibilities.
This final article of the year will be a retrospective: we’ll look at the loudest statements made by companies, governments, and industry leaders about their expectations for 2025 — now that the year is almost over. We’ll break down the most talked-about payment predictions and discuss why they either came true or didn’t.
Let’s begin!
Mass Adoption of Real-Time Payments in the U.S.
One of the key predictions for 2024 was the expansion of instant payments and a full transition to them. Forrester predicted that they would replace checks and ACH in B2B payments, and the Federal Reserve optimistically believed that 75% of U.S. banks would offer instant payments.
In reality, some progress was made: FedNow and the RTP Network together exceeded 1 million transactions per day. However, 85% of U.S. banks (around 8,100) still haven’t adopted either FedNow or RTP. Implementation is moving slower than expected, which remains a critical issue for 2025.
The main barrier is integration with legacy ERP systems used by businesses, which are not easily upgraded to new schemes. Although the infrastructure is ready, mass adoption hasn’t happened yet.
Increased Popularity of Digital Wallets
Predictions for 2025 suggested that around 60% of the global population would use digital wallets — approximately 4.8 billion users. It was also expected that 50% of e-commerce transactions would be conducted via wallets, making them the dominant payment method not only in specific markets but worldwide.
In reality, this forecast didn’t just come true — it exceeded expectations. Currently, there are 5.2 to 5.6 billion users, and 50-53% of e-commerce payments are made with digital wallets — a precise hit. In the U.S., 65% of adults use digital wallets (up from 57% in 2024), and QR payments have reached $5.4 trillion in transaction volume. This turned out to be one of the most accurate predictions, and digital wallets have indeed become mainstream.
Growth of AI in Fraud Detection
It was believed that AI would become critical for fraud prevention and that most systems would operate on its basis. More precise forecasts claimed that 85% of payment professionals would use AI for transaction monitoring, while cybercrime would simultaneously grow to $10 trillion.
This prediction came true. Massive investments in AI systems and widespread adoption are evident: Visa has invested $3.3 billion in AI over the past 10 years and uses over 500 AI applications, while Mastercard acquired Recorded Future for $2.65 billion for AI-based fraud monitoring. Stripe and other payment systems actively use AI to combat payment fraud in real time. Indeed, 85% of businesses have adopted AI for these purposes, but many remain vulnerable to basic bot attacks.
The AI-based anti-fraud tool market is expected to reach $31.69 billion by 2029. The niche is growing, but fraudsters are also adopting new technologies and using various methods of deception, both automated and manual.
Complete or Massive Reduction of Cash Use
One of the least successful predictions concerned the controversial topic of cash. Both the EU and the U.S. expected a decline, but it didn’t happen. Forrester predicted a 40% drop in global cash usage in 2025, including in Europe and Latin America.
In reality, cash still accounts for 46% of all payments (down only slightly from 50% in 2023). In the U.S., there has even been a reversal: cash usage remains stable, with an average of seven cash payments per month (unchanged since 2020). Recently, New York and several other states passed laws against cash discrimination, requiring retailers to accept cash everywhere. Some European countries, after experiencing power outages, also decided not to rush into abandoning cash and began developing offline payment networks.
Additionally, 61% of Britons use cash at least once a week, and in the U.S., $2.37 trillion in cash is in circulation — a new record.
The predicted 40% decline turned out to be just 4%, which is not so notable. This forecast didn’t come true because the population isn’t ready to go fully online, and many online systems aren’t prepared for it either. Some infrastructure can’t handle the load, online payments don’t work in extreme conditions without connectivity, and they’re complex for older demographics. Even Gen Z is returning to cash for budgeting: money from a card disappears too easily, while cash is more tangible and easier to control.
Total Spread of CBDC
According to most predictions, CBDCs were supposed to become the new currency standard worldwide and cover most countries. It was expected that this concept would be widely adopted in 2025, with nearly 90% of countries on board.
In reality, 137 countries are only studying CBDCs (representing 98% of global GDP), but most have not taken active steps toward development. There is mass interest in this topic, but it’s too early to talk about a new banking standard.
Only three countries have fully launched CBDCs: the Bahamas with Sand Dollar, Jamaica with JAM-DEX, and Nigeria with e-Naira. Forty-nine countries are in the pilot stage, and 20 are in development. The digital yuan, yen, tenge, and others are being actively piloted and tested but cannot yet be considered fully launched. Meanwhile, when pilot projects and developments move to full-scale use, the world will reach nearly 50% CBDC coverage, which is already quite significant.
At the same time, there are doubts: U.S. has significantly slowed down its work on CBDC, though it hasn’t abandoned the idea. Looking at existing projects, such as e-Naira, 98.5% of wallets are inactive a year after launch. This suggests that users either don’t understand the nature of this currency or can’t use it. Merchants are in no hurry to connect, so there’s nowhere to spend it, meaning mass adoption isn’t expected anytime soon. A key factor here is likely the lack of anonymity and complete transparency that comes with central bank digital currencies. In countries with traditionally low levels of financial services, achieving such a completely new system is particularly challenging.
Account-to-Account (A2A) Payments at Their Peak
Another strategically strong prediction was the global growth of account-to-account payments, the decline of card payments, and the worldwide adoption of open banking. Many experts believed that A2A payments would displace traditional methods, and giants like UPI and Pix would become global.
As a result, A2A payments have indeed significantly increased in volume and account for 30% of payments through digital wallets. However, global coverage for UPI and Pix is not yet foreseeable. Steps are being taken in this direction: for example, Europe and India recently signed an agreement to integrate TIPS and UPI to achieve the effect of borderless payments within systems. UnionPay is also signing similar agreements with various countries to enable cross-border QR payments. Thus, there is a trend, but it remains localized and hasn’t yet provided freedom in transferring funds between countries using familiar payment methods. Although international payments have significantly improved in speed and cost, they still aren’t a matter of a few minutes and clicks.
In summary, many predictions were accurate but overly optimistic, while some didn’t come true at all. Market shifts can be slow and obvious, but in many cases, they’re unexpected, driven by events happening here and now. Still, it’s important to stay informed and keep up with industry insights, which is why you have Monoup. Thank you, dear readers, for being with us throughout this year, and we look forward to seeing you on the pages of MonoTalks in 2026!
